The danger of a recent uptick in international meals inflation emerged Monday after President Vladimir V. Putin pulled Russia out of the Black Sea grain deal, sending wheat costs surging and exposing susceptible international locations in Africa and the worldwide south particularly to the prospect of a brand new spherical of meals insecurity.

Chicago wheat futures, a barometer for international costs, jumped greater than 4 p.c because the Kremlin’s transfer as soon as once more jeopardized a key commerce path to international markets for grain from Ukraine, one of many world’s main bread baskets.

The transfer seems to be a part of a broader effort by Mr. Putin to reassert an aura of unassailable authority after a failed mutiny by the Wagner Group, stated Timothy Ash, a senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London and an skilled on Russia and Ukraine. “It will hurt specific countries dependent on these exports,” Mr. Ash stated. But past that, “it shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup: He is now desperate to take any bit of leverage he can.”

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was struck a yr in the past to alleviate a global food crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russia blocked ships from carrying the nation’s grain out of its ports on the Black Sea. Those blockages swiftly despatched grain costs hovering to document highs.

Since the deal, meals costs have dropped over 23 p.c from their peak in March 2022, in response to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index. The accord has allowed over 35 million tons of significant meals commodities to be exported from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea to 45 international locations on three continents, the United Nations stated.

With the Black Sea ports closed once more, Ukraine might must redouble its use of alternate routes to get the grain out, together with exporting by way of the Danube River, and by truck and practice overland — journeys that take vastly longer than placing the commodities on ships.

Some components might forestall meals costs from spiking to the staggering ranges seen simply after Russia invaded Ukraine. For one factor, the worldwide commodity value outlook is weaker than a yr in the past due to a faltering economic recovery in China, whereas a world cost-of-living disaster — fueled partially by surging meals and gasoline prices within the wake of Russia’s aggression — has been eroding demand extra usually, Mr. Ash stated.

Supply chain stresses are additionally easing, and manufacturing and manufacturing prices have cooled, in response to an evaluation by Oxford Economics. Even so, whereas meals costs have been drifting downward, they’re more likely to stay excessive in contrast with to prewar ranges, the suppose tank stated.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist on the monetary providers agency StoneX, stated that so far as international meals provides are involved, Russia was nonetheless dumping low-cost wheat in the marketplace “so we are not running out of wheat right now.”

The day earlier than Mr. Putin pulled out of the grain accord, he despatched a separate warning shot to Europe by signing a shock order for the non permanent seizure of the Russian operations of two main European firms.

Danone, the worldwide dairy producer primarily based in France, stated in a statement that its Russian belongings had been positioned in non permanent administration by the Russian authorities, and that it was “investigating the situation.” The firm added that it was “preparing to take all necessary measures to protect its rights as shareholder of Danone Russia, and the continuity of the operations of the business in the interest of all stakeholders, in particular its employees.”

The Danish brewer Carlsberg, the world’s third largest beer maker, stated that it learned on Sunday that its Baltika Breweries in Russia had been transferred to the non permanent administration of the Russian Federal Agency for State Property Management. Carlsberg introduced greater than a yr in the past that it was withdrawing from Russia. Last month, it stated it will make investments $40 million in its Ukraine factories, and that it had discovered a purchaser for the Russian operation, which employs 8,400 employees.

“Following the presidential decree, the prospects for this sale process are now highly uncertain,” Carlsberg stated in a press release on Sunday.

Patricia Cohen contributed reporting.