For delivery firms in search of a method to deliver Ukrainian grain to international markets, the choices hold dwindling, escalating a commerce disaster that’s anticipated so as to add strain on international meals costs.

Russia final week pulled out of an settlement that had allowed for the secure passage of vessels by way of the Black Sea. On Monday it threatened another route for grain, attacking a grain hangar at a Ukrainian port on the Danube River that has served as a key artery for transporting items whereas the Black Sea stays blockaded.

“It’s opening a new front in the targeting of Ukrainian grain exports,” stated Alexis Ellender, an analyst at Kpler, a commodities analytics agency, including that the route had been thought of secure due to its proximity to Romania, a NATO member.

“This will potentially close off that route,” he stated. It may additionally increase charges for delivery insurance coverage and additional cripple Ukraine’s potential to export grain.

Hours after the predawn attack on the hangar on the Ukrainian port of Reni, dozens of vessels that had been sure to gather grain from Ukraine have been clustered on the mouth of the Danube.

Global grain costs have been up 17 p.c on Tuesday from eight days earlier, earlier than Russia pulled out of an agreement that, because it was signed a yr in the past, had allowed Ukraine to export practically 33 million metric tons of meals.

Global markets have ample provides of grain due to sturdy harvests in Brazil and Australia, however a chronic scarcity of exports from Ukraine is prone to make costs extra risky within the occasion of droughts, floods or different excessive climate occasions. Russia stepped up the assaults on Ukraine after India, a prime producer of rice, halted exports of non-basmati white rice final week as a result of excessive climate had hit manufacturing and precipitated home costs to leap.

Even earlier than Russia terminated the Black Sea settlement final week, Ukraine, which produces about 10 p.c of the world’s wheat and 15 p.c of its corn, had more and more relied on different routes for its exports: by land and thru the Danube River, Europe’s second-longest river. Shippers turned to those choices in anticipation that Russia would ultimately pull out of the Black Sea settlement.

Monday’s assault, which was carried out by drone, threw these choices into doubt.

An govt whose ocean transportation firm operates a ship ready to load grain at Reni stated he was ready to listen to whether or not Monday’s assault would have an effect on insurance coverage premiums, which have been already excessive.

The govt, who spoke on the situation of anonymity out of concern for the security of the ship and its crew, stated he had thought the vessel was comparatively secure as a result of nothing had occurred to it previously yr.

Given Russia’s withdrawal from the deal that assured secure passage for business vessels by way of the Black Sea, insurance coverage premiums are prone to be prohibitively costly for shipowners, analysts stated.

But some shipowners could resolve to journey to Ukrainian ports even with the elevated danger, in the event that they obtain assurances from the Turkish and Ukrainian governments, stated Yoruk Isik, an analyst with the consultancy Bosphorus Observer, in Istanbul. In latest days, Russia has launched a collection of aerial assaults on Odesa, a Black Sea port in Ukraine.

While the Danube River had been thought of a safer possibility than the Black Sea, there have been limits to how a lot grain might be exported by way of it, given capability caps at ports, visitors backups at border crossings, gasoline shortages and broken roadways, Mr. Isik stated.

The Danube River can be shallower than the Black Sea. That means many smaller ships are wanted to move the identical quantity of grain that will match on one bigger vessel touring through the Black Sea. “Instead of one ship, you need 20,” Mr. Isik stated.

Over time, he added, the European Union may present financing for brand spanking new rail traces and amenities to ease the circulate of products by way of the Danube, however that may take years. “The Danube will never replace the Black Sea ports of Ukraine,” Mr. Isik stated. “It won’t even come close.”

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of Romania on Monday condemned Russia’s assault on the Danube ports and stated that Romania would proceed to assist Ukraine transport its grain to international markets.

With dwindling choices for exporters, Ukrainian farmers could have no alternative however to lift their costs and put a few of their harvest into storage, stated Michael Magdovitz, an agriculture analyst at Rabobank. They’ll even have much less capability to arrange for subsequent yr’s harvest, that means that even when Russia and Ukraine handle to rehash a deal, Ukrainian manufacturing will likely be extra restricted, he stated.

The Kremlin’s withdrawal from the grain deal, which had been established to assist alleviate the meals disaster in low-income nations in East Africa, North Africa and the Middle East, will present a direct profit to the Russian financial system, analysts stated. In an article revealed on Monday on the Kremlin’s web site, President Vladimir V. Putin wrote that Russia, one other main grain exporter, anticipated a report harvest this yr.

He added that Russia was able to offering free grain to nations in Africa that had relied on exports from Ukraine. The article was revealed forward of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg on Thursday and Friday.

China, Turkey and Egypt had been the largest beneficiaries of the grain deal, with China getting about 20 p.c of its grain imports from Ukraine, stated Evghenia Sleptsova, a senior economist at Oxford Economics.

As for wider impacts, “there is no immediate security threat to other trading flows,” Ms. Sleptosova stated.

Valerie Hopkins contributed reporting from Odesa, Ukraine.