Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, main his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 proportion factors nationally among the many doubtless Republican main voters, in keeping with the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 marketing campaign.

Mr. Trump held decisive benefits throughout virtually each demographic group and area and in each ideological wing of the occasion, the survey discovered, as Republican voters waved away issues about his escalating authorized jeopardy. He led by broad margins amongst women and men, youthful and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those that went to varsity and people who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.

The ballot reveals that a few of Mr. DeSantis’s central marketing campaign arguments — that he’s extra electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern extra successfully — have to date failed to interrupt by means of. Even Republicans motivated by the kind of points which have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, resembling combating “radical woke ideology,” favored the previous president.

Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 p.c to 17 p.c. No different candidate topped 3 p.c help within the ballot.

Below these lopsided top-line figures had been different ominous indicators for Mr. DeSantis. He carried out his weakest amongst a number of the Republican Party’s largest and most influential constituencies. He earned solely 9 p.c help amongst voters a minimum of 65 years outdated and 13 p.c of these with no faculty diploma. Republicans who described themselves as “very conservative” favored Mr. Trump by a 50-point margin, 65 p.c to fifteen p.c.

Still, no different severe Trump challenger has emerged moreover Mr. DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence, the previous United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina every scored 3 p.c help. Chris Christie, the previous New Jersey governor, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, every acquired help from simply 2 p.c of these polled.

Yet even when all these candidates disappeared and Mr. DeSantis acquired a hypothetical one-on-one race in opposition to Mr. Trump, he would nonetheless lose by a two-to-one margin, 62 p.c to 31 p.c, the ballot discovered. That is a stark reminder that, for all of the fretting amongst anti-Trump forces that the occasion would divide itself in a repeat of 2016, Mr. Trump is poised to trounce even a unified opposition.

The survey comes lower than six months earlier than the primary 2024 main contest and earlier than a single debate. In an period of American politics outlined by its volatility, Mr. Trump’s authorized troubles — his trials threaten to overlap with main season — pose an particularly unpredictable wild card.

For now, although, Mr. Trump seems to match each the surly temper of the Republican voters, 89 p.c of whom see the nation as headed within the fallacious route, and Republicans’ need to take the combat to the Democrats.

“He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wife’s underpants and you can’t be a man anymore,” mentioned David Green, 69, a retail supervisor in Somersworth, N.H., mentioned of Mr. Trump. “You got to be a little sissy and cry about everything. But at the end of the day, you want results. Donald Trump’s my guy. He’s proved it on a national level.”

Both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis preserve sturdy total favorable scores from Republicans, 76 p.c and 66 p.c. That Mr. DeSantis continues to be so effectively preferred after a drumbeat of news protection questioning his potential to attach with voters, and greater than $20 million in assault advertisements from a Trump tremendous PAC, demonstrates a sure resiliency. His political crew has argued that his total constructive picture with G.O.P. voters offers a stable basis on which to construct.

But the depth of the previous president’s help is a key distinction as 43 p.c of Republicans have a “very favorable” opinion of Mr. Trump — a cohort that he carries by an awesome 92 p.c to 7 p.c margin in a one-on-one race with Mr. DeSantis.

By distinction, Mr. DeSantis is caught in an efficient tie with Mr. Trump, edging him 49 p.c to 48 p.c, among the many smaller share of main voters (25 p.c) who view the Florida governor very favorably.

In interviews with ballot respondents, a recurring theme emerged. They like Mr. DeSantis; they love Mr. Trump.

“DeSantis, I have high hopes. But as long as Trump’s there, Trump’s the man,” mentioned Daniel Brown, 58, a retired technician at a nuclear plant from Bumpass, Va.

“If he wasn’t running against Trump, DeSantis would be my very next choice,” mentioned Stanton Strohmenger, 48, a upkeep technician in Washington Township, Ohio.

Quite a few respondents interviewed drew a distinction between Mr. DeSantis’s accomplishments in Tallahassee and Mr. Trump’s within the White House.

“Trump has proven his clout,” mentioned Mallory Butler, 39, of Polk County, Fla. “And DeSantis has, but in a much smaller arena.”

The actually anti-Trump faction of the Republican voters appears to hover near one in four G.O.P. voters, hardly sufficient to dethrone him. Only 19 p.c of the voters mentioned Mr. Trump’s conduct after his 2020 defeat threatened American democracy. And solely 17 p.c see the previous president as having dedicated any severe federal crimes, regardless of his indictment by a federal grand jury on charges of mishandling classified documents and his receipt of a so-called target letter within the separate election interference case being introduced by the workplace of the particular counsel, Jack Smith.

“I think Donald Trump is going to carry a lot of baggage to the election with him,” mentioned Hilda Bulla, 68, of Davidson County, N.C., who helps Mr. DeSantis.

Yet Mr. Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is so sturdy, the Times/Siena ballot discovered, that in a head-to-head contest with Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Trump nonetheless acquired 22 p.c amongst voters who imagine he has dedicated severe federal crimes — a higher share than the 17 p.c that Mr. DeSantis earned from the complete G.O.P. voters.

Mr. DeSantis has made taking up “woke” establishments a centerpiece of his political id. But when given a alternative between a hypothetical candidate who prioritized “defeating radical woke ideology” or one who was targeted on “law and order in our streets and at the border,” solely 24 p.c mentioned they’d be extra prone to help the candidate targeted on combating “woke” points.

Equally problematic for Mr. DeSantis is that these “woke”-focused voters nonetheless most well-liked Mr. Trump, 61 p.c to 36 p.c.

The potential to defeat Mr. Biden and to enact a conservative agenda is on the core of Mr. DeSantis’s enchantment to Republicans. He has warned that Mr. Trump has saddled the occasion with a “culture of losing” within the Trump years and has held up his resounding 2022 re-election within the as soon as purple state of Florida as a mannequin for the G.O.P. As governor, he has pushed by means of a sweeping set of conservative priorities which have sharply reoriented the state and promised he would convey the identical policymaking zeal to the White House.

Yet these arguments don’t look like working. A powerful majority of Republicans surveyed, 58 p.c, mentioned it was Mr. Trump, not Mr. DeSantis, who was finest described by the phrase “able to beat Joe Biden.” And once more, it was Mr. Trump, by a lopsided 67 p.c to 22 p.c margin, who was seen extra because the one to “get things done.”

Mr. DeSantis narrowly edged Mr. Trump on being seen as “likable” and “moral.” Interestingly, the share of Republicans who mentioned Mr. Trump was extra “fun” than Mr. DeSantis (54 p.c to 16 p.c) virtually completely mirrored the general horse race.

“He does not come across with humor,” Sandra Reher, 75, a retired trainer in Farmingdale, N.J., mentioned of Mr. DeSantis. “He comes across as a — a good Christian man, wonderful family man. But he doesn’t have that fire, if you will, that Trump has.”

Increasingly on the path, Mr. DeSantis is asking consideration to his “blue-collar” roots and his choice to serve within the navy as causes voters ought to help him as he runs in opposition to a self-professed billionaire. But the ballot confirmed Mr. Trump lapping Mr. DeSantis amongst doubtless Republican main voters incomes lower than $50,000, 65 p.c to 9 p.c.

As of now, Mr. DeSantis’s few demographic refuges — locations the place he’s dropping by smaller margins — are extra upscale pockets of the voters. He trailed Mr. Trump by a much less daunting 12 factors amongst white voters with faculty levels, 37 to 25 p.c. Among these incomes greater than $100,000, Mr. DeSantis was behind by 23 factors, half the deficit he confronted among the many lowest earners.

The fractured subject seems to be stopping Mr. DeSantis from consolidating the help of such voters: In the hypothetical one-on-one race, Mr. DeSantis was statistically tied with Mr. Trump amongst white college-educated voters.

On a variety of points, the ballot suggests it is going to be tough for Mr. DeSantis to interrupt by means of in opposition to Mr. Trump on coverage arguments alone.

In the head-to-head matchup, Mr. Trump was far forward of Mr. DeSantis amongst Republicans who settle for transgender folks because the gender they determine with, and amongst those that don’t; amongst those that need to combat companies that “promote woke left ideology,” and amongst those that favor to remain out of what companies do; amongst those that need to ship extra navy and financial help to Ukraine, and amongst those that don’t; amongst those that need to maintain Social Security and Medicare advantages as they’re, and amongst those that need to take steps to scale back the funds deficit.

Mr. Trump leads Mr. DeSantis amongst Republicans who imagine abortion ought to all the time be authorized, and amongst those that imagine it ought to all the time be unlawful.

Mr. DeSantis signed a strict six-week abortion ban that Mr. Trump has criticized as “too harsh.” Yet Mr. Trump loved the help of 70 p.c of Republicans who mentioned they strongly supported such a measure.

Marcel Paba, a 22-year-old server in Miami, mentioned he preferred what Mr. DeSantis had executed for his state however didn’t assume the governor may overcome the keenness for Mr. Trump.

“There are just more die-hard fans of Trump than there are of Ron DeSantis. Even in Florida,” Mr. Paba mentioned. “I don’t see people wearing a Ron DeSantis hat anywhere, you know?”

Camille Baker, Alyce McFadden and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.

The New York Times/Siena College ballot of 932 voters within the doubtless Republican main voters was performed by phone utilizing dwell operators from July 23 to 27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.96 proportion factors. Cross-tabs and methodology can be found here.