GDP exceeded modest expectations in June and for the second quarter as an entire, however maybe one of the best that may be mentioned of the economic system on the midway level within the yr is that issues may very well be worse.

That was definitely the chancellor’s response to monthly growth of 0.5% and a three-month figure of 0.2%.

Jeremy Hunt pointed to the very fact the UK had prevented recession – a low bar for any finance minister – and would possibly outperform Germany, Italy and France.

The perky determine for June was largely attributed to the bounce again from the depressing impact of the coronation in May, when three Bank Holidays dragged down output, and the recent climate (do not forget that?) which boosted client spending in pubs and eating places.

There was additionally a lift from manufacturing with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) describing automotive and pharmaceutical progress as “buoyant”, a phrase hardly ever utilized in reference to the British economic system in latest months.

These figures could give consolation to Mr Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that the pledge to grow the economy by the end of the year is a minimum of technically deliverable, however what occurs subsequent stays unsure.

Optimists can level to the truth that, regardless of the highest inflation within the G7, an unprecedentedly tight labour market, hovering power payments and the relentless upward march of rates of interest, the UK has prevented a downturn.

Consumer demand has proved resilient regardless of all the opposite pressures on family budgets, maybe indicating that the financial savings stuffed into metaphorical mattresses in the course of the pandemic haven’t been used up but.

The flip facet is that this may very well be pretty much as good because it will get.

The Bank of England is trying to squeeze those self same shoppers to mood inflation and mentioned final week it’ll have to take action for longer.

The dominance of fixed-rate mortgages within the UK housing market implies that whereas the ache of soaring interest rates is felt abruptly and painfully by those that have to refinance, the impression is extra gradual throughout the economic system.

That resilience could make additional fee hikes extra doubtless, and with unemployment forecast to extend, wage progress could sluggish as the roles market weakens too.

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Despite greater Q2 progress than Germany and Italy, broader worldwide comparisons stay unflattering.

Judged by quarterly progress, the UK economic system continues to be 0.2% smaller than earlier than COVID, whereas Germany, Italy, France and the US have all recovered to above pre-pandemic ranges.

The Resolution Foundation in the meantime calculates that within the final 18 months, UK progress has been the bottom exterior durations of recession in 65 years – a technical evaluation, however one in step with Mr Hunt’s view that we are stuck in “a low-growth trap”.