At first, the coup in Niger resembled others which have roiled West Africa lately. On July 26, troopers detained Niger’s president at his dwelling within the capital, Niamey. Hours later, they declared they had seized power. Foreign powers condemned the putsch however did nothing.

Then the coup took a special course.

The United States and France threatened to chop ties with Niger, endangering lots of of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in support. The deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, although detained, was capable of communicate with world leaders, obtain guests and submit defiant messages on social media.

Neighboring nations threatened to go to battle — some to scuttle the coup, and others to make sure its success.

The Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc of nations generally known as ECOWAS, issued an ultimatum to the junta on July 30: Restore Mr. Bazoum to energy inside one week or face the implications, including possible military action.

A day later, the neighboring nations of Mali and Burkina Faso leaped to the junta’s protection. In a joint assertion, they stated they might contemplate any overseas intervention in Niger as a “declaration of war” towards them. (Guinea additionally supported Niger’s navy, however with out the specter of power.)

European nations, led by France, which dominated Niger as a colony till 1960, began evacuating their citizens from Niamey on Tuesday. The United States Embassy ready to evacuate workers. Both France and the United States suspended navy cooperation with Niger.

Niger’s coup has grow to be a crimson line for a lot of. But the saber-rattling has plunged the area into turmoil, exposing deep divisions. The coup leaders insist they’re going nowhere. With worries that the disaster might spill over right into a regional battle, the stakes are quickly rising.

Why does Niger matter?

If the coup succeeds, Niger would be the final domino to fall in an unbroken line of countries stretching across Africa, from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, which can be dominated by navy juntas.

Democratically elected leaders are falling like bowling pins: Since 2020, three of Niger’s neighbors — Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea — have skilled 5 coups. Many within the West had pinned their hopes on Mr. Bazoum, a pleasant determine in a tough neighborhood.

Although Niger has a protracted historical past of coups, Mr. Bazoum promised a democratic future. Elected in Niger’s first peaceable switch of energy in 2021, he advocated for ladies’ training and tried to scale back the nation’s birthrate, the best on the planet.

After years of stagnation, the financial system was forecast to develop 7 p.c this 12 months. And Mr. Bazoum proved a steadfast accomplice to the United States, which has 1,100 troops and two drone bases in Niger; and to France, which has 1,500 troops based mostly there.

The alliance with the West helped Niger push again militants — fatalities from Islamist violence fell sharply final 12 months. But for causes that stay unclear, it might even have stoked tensions contained in the navy, contributing to final week’s coup.

What is ECOWAS, and may it cease a coup?

West Africa’s strongest regional grouping, ECOWAS represents 15 nations with a mixed inhabitants of about 400 million individuals. Although based to spice up economies, ECOWAS has commonly waded into regional conflicts.

Since 1990, its peacekeepers have intervened to assist quell rebellions, uphold cease-fires and power out dictators. The most up-to-date mission was in Gambia in 2017, the place its troopers helped cease former President Yahya Jammeh from overturning an election he had misplaced.

Some need ECOWAS to emulate that instance in Niger. The bloc’s head, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, says that West Africa can not afford extra coups and that ECOWAS must cease being a “toothless bulldog.”

“Tinubu is taking this Niger crisis personally,” stated Rahmane Idrissa, a researcher on the African Studies Center of Leiden University within the Netherlands. “This was a one-coup-too-many for him, and for ECOWAS.”

On Wednesday, Nigeria’s navy chief of workers, Christopher Musa, advised Radio France International that if ordered, his forces had been able to deploy.

Still, many doubt that ECOWAS actually needs to go to battle over Niger. Gambia, the place the bloc final deployed, is the smallest nation on mainland Africa, with a weak military. Niger is twice the dimensions of France, and its battle-tested military has been educated by American and European particular forces.

“We will see if ECOWAS can ratchet up pressure any longer,” stated Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst on the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But I suspect that their bluff has been called.”

Where is the president?

Mr. Bazoum seems to be trapped in an odd limbo.

Typically, throughout coups, ousted leaders are pressured to flee or signal a proper resignation. Mr. Bazoum has executed neither, as an alternative staying at dwelling, the place he spoke with the U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, and with President Emmanuel Macron of France. On Sunday, he welcomed the chief of Chad, Mahamat Déby, who later posted a smiling picture of the imprisoned president on social media.

Senior Nigerien diplomats, insisting that the coup could be reversed, nonetheless name Mr. Bazoum their boss.

“If this coup succeeds, it will be a disaster,” Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, Niger’s ambassador to the United States, stated in an interview. “A disaster for Niger, for the region and for the world.”

But Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the self-declared coup chief, insists it’s going forward.

The head of Niger’s Presidential Guard for 12 years, General Tchiani till not too long ago was in command of Mr. Bazoum’s safety. Why he determined to grow to be the president’s jailer, and to grab energy, stays unclear.

But he says he is not going to bow to worldwide strain. In a tv deal with Wednesday evening, General Tchiani railed towards “illegal, unjust and inhuman” sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Niger because the coup. And he is not going to reinstate Mr. Bazoum, he added.

Who advantages from the chaos?

The sight of coup supporters brandishing Russian flags in central Niamey, some chanting slogans in favor of President Vladimir V. Putin, stoked suspicions that the Kremlin had a hand within the coup.

In truth, there’s little proof to assist that concept, consultants say. But that hasn’t prevented Russian officers from seeing Niger’s disaster as a serious alternative.

Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch whose Wagner mercenary paramilitaries have been deployed to Mali, has pitched his companies to Niger’s coup leaders. On Wednesday, one traveled to Mali’s capital, Bamako, the place he met with Malian leaders and Wagner officers.

The different potential beneficiaries are the area’s Islamist militants. Since the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, militants’ assaults on civilians in these nations have soared. But in Niger, they’ve dropped — a pattern that many worry might now be reversed.

If the coup succeeds, “it could provide a large base, a sanctuary, to Wagner and the jihadists in the heart of West Africa,” Mr. Liman-Tinguiri, the diplomat, stated. “This is not another coup as usual.”

Elian Peltier contributed reporting from Dakar, Senegal.