Susannah Streeter, head of cash and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, mentioned: “The pound is continuing its downward slide against the dollar and is hovering around the lowest point since mid-March, as expectations for future interest rate policy in the UK and the US diverge. Demand appears to be seeping out of the UK economy faster than in the US. While the Bank of England has kept the door open to another hike, it’s not looking likely, while the Fed has flagged another interest rate rise is likely this year with higher rates set to stay for longer.”
Sterling’s weak spot will improve the price of imports which may in flip improve inflation – unhealthy news for each Bank of England fee setters and the federal government.
ING mentioned in a be aware to purchasers: “The dollar is finding more strength thanks to a soft risk environment and attractive real rates after the bond selloff. We now see downside risks for EUR/USD potentially extending to 1.02 in a bond sell-off acceleration.”
ING added: “The dollar is enjoying another widespread rally, shrugging off yesterday’s unconvincing US consumer confidence figures while being boosted by a round of defensive re-positioning amid a deteriorating risk environment. Furthermore, the recent treasury selloff has kept fuelling the real rate attractiveness of the dollar, reinforcing the greenback’s role as the go-to currency in the current market’s environment.”
The pound is now down 7% towards the greenback within the final 9 weeks from $1.31.
Analyst George Vessey at Convera mentioned. “The prospect of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates in the U.S. has pushed U.S. bond yields higher, which sucks foreign capital into U.S. bonds, thus driving the Dollar higher.
“Surging US Treasury yields as a result of US exceptionalism is keeping dollar demand buoyant, but the pound is also being sold across the board as UK gilt yields slide with UK rate expectations,” he said:
Adding to the gloom, former MPC member Adam Posen said the UK economy will shrink this year and next due to stubborn inflation and a shortage of workers.
The UK economy will shrink this year and in 2024, according to Posen who said stubborn inflation and a shortage of workers would damage the prospects for growth more than most analysts expect.
Now at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) he said a drop in GDP this year of 0.3% would be followed by a fall of 0.2% next year while the eurozone and the US were on course for growth.
The UK has repeatedly defied predictions it will fall into recession however.
Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said:
“Both the euro and sterling have slumped to six-month lows on the US dollar this week. While the moves can be largely attributed to a strong greenback, both currencies are currently underperforming their G10 counterparts. Aside from valuation, concerns over the state of both economies have contributed to the sell-offs. Economic news out of the UK, in particular, has turned decidedly bleak in recent weeks.”
