Just three days in the past, the Wagner mercenary group was advancing on Moscow, and Vladimir V. Putin’s two-decade rule over Russia appeared beneath menace. Then, in a surprising twist, the rebellion’s chief, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, stated that he was halting the rebel and going into exile.

As the mud settles, here’s a have a look at what we all know concerning the state of affairs.

What will occur to Mr. Prigozhin?

As of Tuesday morning, the latest pictures to be launched of Mr. Prigozhin confirmed him smiling at onlookers on Saturday as he was pushed away from Rostov-on-Don, the southwestern Russian metropolis that Wagner had claimed management over.

At the time these photos have been taken, he was anticipated to go to Belarus beneath a deal introduced by that nation’s authoritarian chief, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, a loyal ally of Mr. Putin’s.

On Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Lukashenko stated that Mr. Prigozhin — a billionaire and himself a onetime buddy of Mr. Putin’s — had arrived within the nation.

Yet a lot is unknown concerning the fast way forward for Mr. Prigozhin, not least the place he’ll reside, whether or not he will likely be free to journey inside or exterior Belarus and the way a lot clout he’ll be capable of wield as a political determine in Russia.

Perhaps most essential, it’s not clear how his relations with Moscow — and with Mr. Putin — will evolve. Some earlier Putin allies who fell afoul of him have confronted the wrath of Russia’s safety providers.

It can be unclear what, if any, position Mr. Prigozhin will likely be allowed to play as chief of the Wagner Group, whose fighters have been additionally provided entry into Belarus.

What will occur to Wagner?

Fomenting rise up would usually be perilous in Mr. Putin’s Russia, the place even modest acts of dissent are harshly punished. But the Russian authorities stated on Tuesday that costs of “armed mutiny” towards Mr. Prigozhin and the mercenaries have been being dropped as a part of the association with Mr. Lukashenko.

On Sunday, the Russian state news media reported that Wagner troops had returned to their camps in Ukraine’s japanese Luhansk area, which Russia largely occupies and illegally annexed final fall. At the identical time, Mr. Lukashenko stated on Tuesday that he was providing Wagner fighters a base to make use of in Belarus, though it was unclear on what phrases the supply had been made, how most of the mercenaries would settle for it or what they’d do there.

Mr. Putin had stated earlier than the tried rebellion that each one irregular items combating in Ukraine, together with Wagner, must signal contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry, a transfer that Mr. Prigozhin cited this weekend as a key motivation behind his rise up.

Given that, it’s unclear how rapidly — and even whether or not — Russia’s navy can soak up them into its ranks. It calls into query the willingness of Wagner fighters to serve and doubtlessly die beneath the brand new, official construction.

Only after they return to fight in Ukraine will or not it’s doable to evaluate their persevering with morale and drive. Some Ukrainian troops have thought-about them the best-equipped, most motivated and most tactically aggressive of all of the Russian forces.

And Ukraine is simply a part of Wagner’s portfolio. The group operates in the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan, and in every nation it has provided navy help in change for cost, partly when it comes to entry to the nations’ pure sources. In Mali, proof means that they participated in a massacre of civilians final 12 months, whereas within the Central African Republic they’re accused by The Sentry, a Washington-based group that seeks to show corruption, of doable struggle crimes.

Wagner appeared to function in Africa on the Kremlin’s behalf, and it’s unclear whether or not Wagner will now press forward with its contracts on the continent or pull again.

Is Mr. Putin stronger or weaker?

There isn’t any scarcity of consultants who say that Mr. Putin is a diminished determine due to the rebellion, which was maybe probably the most public safety menace of his rule of greater than 20 years. Analysts word that, for a pacesetter who strives to undertaking toughness, his vow on Saturday to carry the mercenaries to justice, solely to speedily lower a deal through which they may apparently keep away from prosecution, made for a noteworthy climb down.

But since then, Mr. Putin has tried to project unity and strength. On Monday, he billed Mr. Prigozhin as a traitor and stated that the Russian state had “at all levels” consolidated towards the rebellion. On Tuesday, Mr. Putin thanked the Russian navy for having “essentially stopped a civil war.”

It shouldn’t be clear how any potential weakening of Mr. Putin’s grip on energy would possibly manifest, or how rapidly and in what kind any problem to his authority may come.

He is judged partly by Russia’s success, or lack thereof, on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the power of Moscow’s troops to face up to a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began this month will present a take a look at of his authority over the navy. But Mr. Putin’s principal viewers is home.

One analyst, Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter turned political guide, stated the speech on Monday was an “extremely weak performance.”

That stated, after a two-day interval throughout which each hour appeared to deepen Mr. Putin’s peril this weekend, the approaching days and weeks may give him alternatives to reassert an aura of stability.

That definitely gave the impression to be his purpose on Tuesday, when he delivered a grandly choreographed speech to troopers and safety troops standing at consideration on the Kremlin grounds — a uncommon public look that included a red-carpet arrival.

How will it have an effect on the struggle in Ukraine?

At the very least, the Wagner Group has confronted a turbulent few days. And for Ukraine’s navy, whose counteroffensive is gathering steam, that may’t damage.

The query is how a lot Kyiv can capitalize on any indicators of wavering throughout the Wagner group’s morale. The undeniable fact that some Wagner troops will likely be introduced beneath Russian navy command beginning July 1 may shake-up the group, not less than within the brief time period.

Then there may be the query of what occurs to the Wagner fighters’ battlefield energy. The mercenaries led the best way for Russia in months of combating for the japanese Ukrainian metropolis of Bakhmut, struggling tens of 1000’s of casualties alongside the best way.

It stays to be seen whether or not that may be reproduced inside Russian’s armed forces, who’re usually paid lower than the mercenary fighters.